A.T. Kearney makes its 10 predictions for 2019

Sino-Russian trade growth

Management consultancy A.T. Kearney has released its annual year-ahead predictions from its Global Business Policy Council. The Council’s third annual set of geopolitical/business predictions include an intensified US-China trade war, a consolidated cryptocurrency market, and a shortage of sand.

For the third consecutive year, A.T. Kearney has made a year-end stab at 10 significant events or trends that it expects to gain momentum in the coming year. Broadly, the consulting firm expects trade tensions and geopolitical realignments to accelerate in 2019, while underreported resource challenges will rise in seriousness.

1) The US-China trade war will intensify

This year, President Trump slapped tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports – despite the widespread opposition of the business community – prompting China to retaliate with tariffs on $110 billion in US imports. The two superpowers are currently in the midst of a 90-day negotiation period ending in February that has put a temporary halt to further tariff rate escalation.

A.T. Kearney expects the ‘ceasefire’ won’t last, as China will still refuse to address complaints over its industrial policy, weak IP protections, and forced technology transfers. Trump is expected to raise tariff levels while potentially extending the tariffs to an addition $267 billion in Chinese goods. China will likely retaliate with a further increase in tariff rates.

2) Bitcoin will lead the consolidation and maturation of the cryptocurrency market


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